PlotX v1, a decentralized non-custodial prediction market protocol was launched on the Ethereum Network on the 13th of Oct 2020.
Dubbed as the Uniswap of Prediction Markets, PlotX v1 used an Automated Market Making algorithm to create and settle crypto-focused prediction markets in the intervals of 1 hour, 1 day, and 1 week. Markets were focused on crypto-pairs like BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT etc, and were created and settled cyclically without any counterparty risk on Ethereum.
The PlotX v1 saw an influx of users with a growing TVL of up to $220K in about 2 months of its launch in Oct 2020. However, user experience was marred due to increasing gas costs on the Ethereum network, which led to the user’s economic unviability of doing microtransactions of the sizes of $50-150 per prediction.
After months of research and development efforts, PlotX v2 is now being launched on Polygon, an Ethereum L2 solution for scalability. Brief highlights of the new features in v2 are as follows:
Gasless transactions that abstract gas fee payments
PlotX v2 offers meta-transactions - this means that once a user’s Web3 wallet is connected to PlotX, the user doesn’t need to separately pay gas-fee for any transaction. This is a massive UX improvement that takes PlotX a step closer to mass adoption.
No RPC changes on Metamask
Thanks to the integration of Magic Link Web3 wallet, the user doesn’t need to keep flipping between Ethereum & Polygon network for day to day usage of the protocol.
After tonnes of feedback from the v1 users, a new UX has been designed to further improve the usability of the protocol. The UX focuses on simplifying the DeFi experience for a commoner to bring it as close as possible to a mainstream application experience.
The new UX is also blazing fast in comparison to v1.
Smooth bridging of assets between L1 & L2
One of the biggest challenges when moving to an L2 solution like Polygon is the bridging of tokens from L1 to L2 (and the other way around).
PlotX v2 has in-built capabilities for smooth token bridging to-and-fro from L1 and L2.
Mandatory Liquidity in all markets via Market Creators
Another big problem of v1 was around bootstrapping of liquidity in each market. This has been solved by mandating liquidity via market creators in v2 - this means that markets on v2 will always have bootstrapped liquidity.
The incentives for the market creators have been accordingly adjusted and shall continue to evolve as we test the v2 in real-life scenarios.
Ish Goel, Founding Member of PlotX entered the Ethereum ecosystem back in 2016. Along with Nitika, Ish won the London Blockchain Week Hackathon in 2017 and joined Nexus Mutual as the CTO.
Nitika Goel, Founding Member of PlotX entered the Ethereum ecosystem in 2016 and has served as the Lead Developer of Nexus Mutual. She also co-founded GovBlocks, an on-chain governance toolkit. She was also the author of the ERC1132 lockable token standard on Ethereum.
Kartic Rakhra, Founding Member of PlotX entered the Ethereum ecosystem in 2017 and co-founded GovBlocks along with Ish & Nitika. He also set up India's largest blockchain community via the India Blockchain Week in partnership with Fintech Worldwide.
PlotX uses Magic Link as a method of logging into the v2 app.
Magic Link is a service that helps applications/website enable password-less login for their users
It does so by asking each user for their email address and then emailing a "Login" button (aka magic link) to the user
When the user clicks on the "Login" button, they are logged into the application/website they were trying to access
Step-by-step guide here
On PlotX, users can predict the value of each digital asset on three different time frames (Market Cycles) - 1 Hour, 1 Day, & 1 Week.
Each Market Cycle has the following characteristics:
Market Start Time - This is the time when markets become live on PlotX, and users can start making predictions in them
Market End Time - This is the time when markets stop accepting predictions from users
Market Closing Time - This is the time when the protocol notes down the price of the market asset and decides the winning option
Market Settlement Time - This is when the winning option participants get their respective rewards
Market Time Frame - 1 hour
Market Start Time - 10 AM
Market End Time - 11 AM
Market Closing Time - 12 PM
Market Settlement Time - 12:15 PM
Market Time Frame - 1 day
Market Start Time - 12 PM, 1 April 2021
Market End Time - 12 PM, 2 April 2021
Market Closing Time - 12 PM, 3 April 2021
Market Settlement Time - 6 PM, 3 April 2021
Market Time Frame - 1 week
Market Start Time - 12 PM, 1 April 2021
Market End Time - 12 PM, 8 April 2021
Market Closing Time - 12 PM, 15 April 2021
Market Settlement Time - 6 AM, 17 April 2021
Duration: Market Start Time - Market End Time
The very first stage for a market after creation is the ‘Live’ stage. This is where you make predictions in the market
This stage lasts for one whole Market Cycle (1 hour for Hourly, 1 day for Daily, and 1 week for Weekly markets)
Duration: Market End Time - Market Closing Time
After the timer in the ‘Live’ stage runs out, the market enters the ‘In Settlement’ stage
This is when the market has stopped accepting predictions and is waiting for the results to come in
This stage also lasts for one whole Market Cycle (1 hour for Hourly, 1 day for Daily, and 1 week for Weekly markets)
Duration: 1/4th of the Market Cycle you’re currently in
After the timer in the ‘In Settlement’ stage runs out, the market enters the ‘In Cooling’ stage
This is when the results have arrived and the winners are decided, but to ensure that everyone is on the same page and there’s no disagreement on the results, the market enters this stage for 1/4th the duration of the Market Cycle
So, for 4 Hour markets, the ‘In Cooling’ stage lasts for 1 hour, for daily markets — 6 hours, and for weekly markets — 1 day and 18 hours
During this time, anyone who disagrees with the results can raise a dispute and that’ll push the market into the ‘In Dispute’ stage
If someone raises a dispute during the ‘In Cooling’ time period, the market enters the ‘In Dispute’ stage
When the market is in this stage, the Dispute Resolution Governance Mechanism kicks in; the Dispute is reviewed and after following the due procedure of reviewing and voting, the dispute is resolved
Duration: 3 days are given to each dispute to be either accepted or rejected
More on dispute resolution and governance later
The final destination of every market is the ‘Settled’ stage. If any disputes are raised while the market is cooling then the extra step of 'In Dispute' is added between the ‘In Cooling’ stage and the ‘Settled’ stage, otherwise, the market is settled right after the cooling period.
The ‘Settled’ stage is when the rewards are distributed to the market winners
The option price for buying prediction positions becomes steep towards the end of the participation time. So, the user who participates towards the end of the participation time will get a lesser number of positions in comparison to a user who participates early.
To make sure that participants are truly predicting and not just entering the market at the last possible moment to gain an edge after the participation time is over, the market goes into the In Settlement stage where no one can enter the market. The duration of the In Settlement stage is equal to the participation time and only after it's over, does the protocol note down the price of the market asset and decide the winning option.
bPLOT (bonus-PLOT) is a wrapped $PLOT token that is non-tradeable and can only be used to participate in PlotX prediction markets. The value of bPLOT is equal to that of $PLOT at all times and by using bPLOT to make correct predictions, one can convert their bPLOT (which are non-tradeable) into $PLOT (which are tradeable).
A few things that you need to keep in mind while making predictions with bPLOT are:
You can only make one prediction per unique market using bPLOT. For example, if you've already placed a prediction using bPLOT in an Hourly ETH-USD market which is asking for the price of ETH-USD at 2 PM, 25th April 2021, then, you cannot make another prediction using bPLOT in the same market. You can, however, make another prediction in the same market using PLOT.
Each bPLOT prediction involves a conversion of bPLOT to an equal amount of $PLOT. This ensures that the reward pool only comprises PLOT. This also means that if you place a prediction using bPLOT, and your prediction turns out to be correct, then you'll receive back your participation amount (minus the platform transaction fees) in the form of $PLOT and not bPLOT.
To use bPLOT to make a prediction on PlotX, select bPLOT as the payment currency in the payment asset selection drop-down.