⚙️ How Do Pre-IDO Prediction Markets Work
A prediction market that asks for the future of a crypto asset that hasn't been listed publically on any CEX or DEX is known as a Pre-IDO Prediction Market (PPM).
For example, a PPM can have a question like - “What will be the price of X coin 48 hours after its initial listing on a certain DEX?”
The benefits of creating pre-IDO prediction markets come in the form of understanding trader interest & monitoring hype for the asset before it is publicly listed.
To understand the benefits of pre-IDO prediction markets better, let’s take a look at who all are the main stakeholders in such markets:
Stakeholders:
Project Team — The team building the asset of which the post-listing value users will predict on
Investors / Traders / Launchpads — The individuals and entities who are already invested or want to invest in the coin
Crypto Media / Key Opinion Leaders — The people who want to cover the happenings and advancements in the project and the asset
The benefits for all these stakeholders are manyfold:
With so many projects launching every day, it’s essential to be differentiated in the market and get noticed by investors. A prediction market on PlotX is a unique offering that not only boosts the projects’ outreach but also makes it stand out in the eyes of traders and investors with crowd sourced intelligence on the project.
Teams get access to on-chain opinions about their project. This aggregated crowd intelligence helps them chart the correct course of action for the project.
Projects can easily integrate the PlotX protocol to further gather crowd intelligence from their community on important matters in their ecosystem.
These markets are the perfect tool for private sale investors to signal their belief in the project publicly while also gathering signals from the market at large, about the potential of the asset post-IDO.
The pre-IDO prediction market gives investors the easiest way to compare the potential of different crypto assets ahead of their actual listing. This is especially helpful in situations where there are multiple IDOs happening in close proximity to each other.
Crypto media and Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) can get validated crowd opinion on various IDOs, similar to exit polls. They also get a list of curated upcoming IDOs.
Every pre-IDO prediction market will go through the following lifecycle:
Market is created prior to the IDO
Market stops accepting predictions on the day of the IDO
Market goes into the ‘In Settlement’ stage and waits for the result to come in
Market notes the coin price at the settlement time and decide the winning option
Market goes into the ‘Cooling’ stage
Market distributes the rewards to the winning option predictors after the ‘Cooling’ stage
Note that this is a one-off market. Unlike the cyclical PlotX markets that are currently live, a pre-IDO prediction market will be created and settled only once per asset.
However, every project whose assets’ pre-IDO prediction market is created can choose to keep creating regular cyclic prediction markets for their asset even after the listing.
