A prediction market is a type of derivatives market, based on the principle of "wisdom of the crowd".
"Wisdom of the crowd" dictates that the collective opinion of a group of individuals is almost always far more accurate than that of a single expert.
To take advantage of this principle, prediction markets allow us to predict the outcomes of unknown future events by letting people bet on different options that represent different potential outcomes of the event
The market prices change based on the interest in a particular option over the others.
These markets can, thus, indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of a particular outcome is.
The primary purpose of prediction markets is to collect crowdsourced beliefs about an unknown future event
. This information is then used to make key decisions.
PlotX provides a set of features that are specially built to suit the needs of crypto traders:
Guaranteed rewards for correct predictions
Quick turnaround times
Use PLOT, MATIC, USDC, USDT, DAI, or WETH to make predictions
Use MetaMask, WalletConnect, or Email to log in
Non-custodial and decentralized protocol
Secure and audited smart contracts
These features ensure that traders get CeFi like convenience while still enjoying DeFi security and decentralization.
How do I interact with PlotX?
In order to make predictions on PlotX, you simply:
Choose a market
Example: "Will BTC to USD value go up or down at Aug 26 2021, 6:30 PM?"
Choose an option
Every market has three options. For example, the market mentioned above has the following options:
• Going Up: > $46,825
• Staying Flat: $42,375 to $46,825
• Going Down: < $42,375
Make the prediction
After choosing an option, select the currency you want to use, enter the amount, and make the gas-free transaction to complete your prediction
Claim your reward
When the settlement time comes, if your prediction is correct, you'll get guaranteed rewards
Fun fact: Users have more than 50x’d their money on PlotX in a span of weeks!
What is the cost of interacting with PlotX?
Whenever you predict on PlotX, 2% of your prediction amount goes to cover the platform upkeep costs. This includes costs like the relayer's cost of covering all meta transactions on the platform, the market creator's incentives for providing the initial liquidity to every market etc.
The 2% prediction fee is thus, further divided into the following subcategories:
DAO Share: 10% of the 2% prediction fee | 0.2% of all predictions
Market Creator Share: 40% of the 2% prediction fee | 0.8% of all predictions
Relayer Share: 50% of the 2% prediction fee | 1% of all predictions
PlotX has meta transactions for every transaction that you do on the platform. This means that you don't have to pay any gas fees while transacting on PlotX.
How do PlotX pools work?
PlotX prediction markets offer three options in every market:
When a market settles, one option emerges as the winning option and its reward pool consists of the sum of amount at stake in the other two options.
For example, when a market settles, if the Going Up option turns out to be the winning option, its reward pool is the sum of the amount at stake in the Staying Flat option and the amount at stake in the Going Down option.
This reward pool is distributed among the users who predicted in the winning option based on the positions they bought in the option.
Is there any risk?
No platform can be considered entirely risk free. The risks related to PlotX are the smart contract risk (risk of a bug within the protocol code) and the risk of a wrong prediction (risk of losing the prediction amount in case of a wrong prediction). Every possible step has been taken to minimise the risk as much as possible.
Two independent smart contract security audits have been conducted by CertiK and Mudit Gupta. The reports of these audits can be found below:
bPLOT (bonus-PLOT) is a wrapped PLOT token that can only be used to predict in PlotX prediction markets. By using bPLOT to make correct predictions, you can get them converted to an equal amount of PLOT. To know more about bPLOT, click here.