🔮 How to make predictions on PlotX

Looking to make predictions on PlotX? This is just the place to learn how :)

Prerequisites

You should have a good understanding of the basics. If you don't, please click here. If you do, please read along...

Making Predictions

Let's start where we left off in the Overview guide - Applying Analysis using the chart provided by Trading View.

Step 1 - Applying Analysis

In every market, there's a chart for the selected asset (eg - BTC, ETH). You can use this detailed chart to apply technical analysis before deciding on your prediction.

Step 2 - Choosing an Option

After you’re done applying analysis and have decided on your price prediction, you need to choose one of the three options that can be seen below the price chart, that best reflects your prediction.

In the screenshot above, we’re in the Live > Hourly > BTC-USDT market and the options that we can choose from are:

  • Bearish - Below or Equal to $10,616

  • Neutral - Between $10,616 and $10,669

  • Bullish - Above or Equal to $10,669

You can also see the participation stats for each option to analyse the market better before making your choice. It is also important to note that the option price for each option can be different; this is dictated by several factors. You can learn more about option pricing in this FAQ - How are Options Price calculated?

So, if we think that the price of BTC-USDT will be somewhere around $10,650 when this market closes, then we’ll make our prediction in the Neutral option (Between $10,616 and $10,669).

Now, if you’re familiar with traditional prediction markets, you might notice something odd at this point; and rightfully so. This is because, in traditional prediction markets, participants can only either be a Bull or a Bear (long or short, yes or no), there is no in-between.

However, PlotX provides you with three options on each trade. Along with two traditional Up and Down predictions, there is a third neutral option in every market, which is a range-bound option and sits between the bull and bear positions, thus providing you with more options on each trade.

Step 3 - Buying Prediction Positions

At this point, you might be wondering, “what is it that I am actually purchasing? What are positions and why am I buying them?”

Good question! The answer is, positions are a way of representing your share of the reward pool if the option you’re predicting, happens to be the correct one. This means that the more positions you have in the option, the bigger your share of the reward pool will be if your option happens to be the correct one.

Now, the question arises, how do you buy prediction positions?

And the answer to that is - after you’ve chosen an option that best reflects your prediction, you can click on the ‘Predict’ button to reveal the ‘Buy Option Positions’ menu, where you can enter the amount of ETH/PLOT/bPLOT you want to place your prediction with (aka Participation Amount aka Playing Amount), select the ‘Leverage’, and play around the ‘Staking Multiplier’ as well.

If this menu doesn’t make sense to you now, don’t worry, this guide will cover each aspect of buying prediction positions, starting with:

Step 4 - Asset Selection

On PlotX, you can buy prediction positions using ETH, PLOT or bPLOT.

PlotX charges a fee from the market participants whenever they make any prediction. This fee is taken as a percentage of participation amount (aka Playing Amount). For participations in ETH, the fee is 0.1%, while for participations in PLOT or bPLOT , the fee is half of that at 0.05%. To know more about why this fee is charged, and what is done with it, please read the Token Utility 1.

Step 5 - Entering the Participation Amount

After you’ve selected the asset you want to use to purchase prediction positions, you need to enter the amount of the selected asset you want to participate with. For example - 0.5 ETH.

Step 6 - Select the Leverage

Whenever you decide to predict in any market, you need to enter the amount of ETH/PLOT/bPLOT you wanna play with along with selecting the leverage you’re most comfortable with. The leverage you select determines either your risk factor or your rewards.

Talking about the risks first, 1x leverage implies that, if your prediction happens to be wrong, you’ll lose only 20% of the amount you’re participating with; 5x leverage implies that, if you happen to be wrong you’ll lose 100% of the amount you’re participating with. Leverage of 2x, 3x, and 4x reflects a risk of 40%, 60%, and 80% respectively.

Moving on to how the leverage you select affects your rewards calculation, the benefit of higher leverage comes in the form of Leverage Multiplier that gives you extra positions in the market. AND since your rewards are directly tied to the number of positions you hold in the option, selecting higher leverage also directly affects your rewards.

To summarise, this is the overall effect each Leverage has on your positions, and thus, on your rewards:

Leverage

Overall Effect

1x

-

2x

2.1 times the positions in 1x

3x

3.3 times the position in 1x

4x

4.6 times the positions in 1x

5x

6 times the positions in 1x

To know more about how the Leverage you select affects your positions calculations, check out this FAQ - What is Leverage and how do I use it? Note: bPLOTs can only be used with 5x leverage.

Step 7 - Staking Multiplier (optional)

To encourage play mining, players are incentivized to stake their PLOT to earn a multiplier on their positions during the staking period.

How it works - Users can stake (lock) their PLOT within the PlotX staking smart contract for a minimum 30 days period to boost the number of positions they’ll get while participating, subject to the following conditions: -

  • Minimum Participation Amount of 0.5 ETH or 0.5 ETH equivalent of PLOT per prediction.

  • The Staked Amount has to be greater than the particiaption amount.

The Staking Multiplier helps the player increase their positions and thus be better off than a user who hasn’t staked or staked less. What makes the Staking Multiplier (aka Play Mining Feature) very useful is that it can be used in every unique market during the course of the stake to gain extra positions and thus extra rewards. Also, even if your prediction turns out to be wrong, you don't lose any of the PLOT that are part of the Staked Amount.

Note: A player can benefit from the Staking Multiplier only once in one unique market. Which means that if the player has purchased positions inclusive of the Staking Multiplier benefit in an hourly market which is predicting the value of a market pair at 2:00 PM, they will not be able to gain the benefit of the multiplier if they look to take another position in the same market.

To know more about the Staking Multiplier, how it is calculated, and how it affects your positions calculation, check out this FAQ - How does staking for Play Mining works?

Step 8 - Expected Positions

After you have entered the Participation Amount, selected a Leverage you’re most comfortable with, and staked (or not staked) your PLOT to get (or not get) the Staking Multiplier, the no. of positions you’ll be getting is automatically calculated on-chain and displayed in the ‘No. of Positions Expected’ field.

Note - As you can also see in the screenshot above, the number shown in the ‘No. of Positions Expected’ field is just an estimation of the number of positions you can get, provided nothing in the market changes.

The number of positions you will get post-purchase may actually end up being different from the number displayed in this field if a variable in the market changes (such as the option price) while you’re in the process of purchasing the positions.

To the right of the ‘No. of Positions Expected’ field, you can see the ‘Pool Share %’ you will get, based on the current market condition, in the option in which you’re placing your prediction. This basically means that if this particular option happens to be the winning option, then you would get x% of the reward pool. In this case, we’ll get 100% of the reward pool if this option happens to win (meaning only we have placed a prediction in this option).

Step 9 - Making the Transaction

After you’re done entering and reviewing the details on your prediction, you need to click on the ‘Buy Now’ button to initiate the transaction that’ll get you those prediction positions we’ve been after this whole process.

Note - Below the ‘Buy Now’ button, you can see the Transaction Fees that’ll be deducted from the Participation Amount you’ve entered, as a part of platform charges. Once again, when you use PLOT to make your predictions, the Platform Transaction Fees you pay is half (0.05% of the Participation Amount) of the Platform Transaction Fees you pay when you use ETH to make predictions (0.1% of the Participation Amount).

Then, click on ‘Buy Now’ and that’ll initiate a MetaMask transaction of the entered Participation Amount.

Click on ‘Confirm’ and viola! You have successfully purchased prediction positions on PlotX!

After your transaction is successful, you can see the amount of ETH/PLOT/bPLOT you have participated with and no. of positions you got in the selected option in the ‘Your Participation’ and ‘Your Positions’ column respectively:

You may choose to predict more than once in the same option or in a different option.

Seeing your Prediction’s Status

After you’re done making predictions in any market, naturally, the next thing you’d wanna do will be to check the status of the market in which you just made your prediction. The ‘In Settlement’ page is where you can check out all the necessary information about the market which has just ended. Information like:

  • Total Participation in each option;

  • Your Participation in each option;

  • Total Positions in each option;

  • Your Positions in each option; and

  • Total Reward Pool for each option.

You can also calculate your exact rewards if your prediction happens to be correct, using the information on this page. Simply plug in the information you see here into the following formula: -

Reward Pool * (Your Positions / Total Positions)

You can also click on the ‘View Market Leaderboard’ button to view every single detail about that particular market. This includes what amount of ETH, PLOT, and bPLOT each participant has participated with, the leverage they used, the positions they got against their participation, and the reward they got (if any). Speaking of the Market Leaderboard,

Analysing the ‘LEADERBOARD’ Page

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The ‘LEADERBOARD’ page is the place where you can see all the in-depth stats about each market that has ever gone live on PlotX. Simply come to the page, and enter the information about the market whose stats you want to see, in the given search fields.

For example - if you want to see the stats of the hourly market that was asking the price of ETH-USDT at 7:30 PM, 01 October 2020, then, you will select ETH-USDT in the market selector menu, select hourly as the market duration, and enter 7:30 PM, 01 October, 2020 in the ‘Select date range’ field.

Each market has a unique leaderboard attached to it that shows every single detail about that market. You can see how many addresses participated in the market, their cumulative participation amount, the reward pool amount, which addresses participated with how much ETH / PLOT / bPLOT, how many positions they got for that participation amount, how much ETH / PLOT they got as a reward, and much more.

Checking the Results

If no disputes are raised while the market is cooling, after the timer in the ‘In Cooling’ stage runs out, the market gets settled, the winners that were initially decided at the Market Closing Time get finalised, and the rewards are distributed to them.

Once the market is settled, you can toggle to the ‘Settled’ page within the ‘MARKETS’ page to see stuff like which address won how much ETH, PLOT, and bPLOT.

However, if you happen to come back after some time, and you can’t see the ‘Settled’ page for the market in which you made your prediction, then, you can go to the ‘MY ACCOUNT’ page through the navigation bar at the top to see your predictions’ history. Then, just click on the market name whose results you want to see, and that will open up the leaderboard of the market.

Claiming Your Rewards

If you get some rewards as a result of your prediction being correct, then, you can claim those rewards in the ‘MY ACCOUNT’ page. When you have any pending rewards, you can claim those rewards by clicking the ‘Claim’ button as seen here. This will initiate a transaction of the ‘Pending’ amount, through your connected wallet. Afterwards, just click on ‘Confirm’ and once the transaction goes through, you’ll get the ‘Pending’ amount in your wallet!

You can also review other key stats about your PlotX account like how much ETH and PLOT you have participated with on different markets, the rewards you’ve gotten, reward claims you’ve made, and your overall profit percentage from the “MY ACCOUNT” page.

In addition to all this, you can also see a list of all the markets you have ever made a prediction in, sorted by market characteristics like the Market Asset (eg - BTC, ETH etc), Market Duration (eg - Hourly, Daily, Weekly), and the Market Time (in ascending or descending order).

Moreover, the ‘MY ACCOUNT’ page is also your destination if you want to stake some PLOT to get that sweet-sweet Staking Multiplier or increase the amount or duration of the already staked PLOT, as discussed in the “Staking Multiplier” section of this guide.

Bonus Step - Market Creation on PlotX

Before a market goes live on PlotX, it has to be created on the Ethereum Blockchain first. PlotX has a unique AMM mechanism that helps its users initiate the creation of markets by letting them sign the Ethereum transaction that is required to create markets. Once the market is created users can place their predictions.

This Ethereum transaction that is required to create a market is known as the ‘Market Creation Transaction’ and users who perform the actual transaction are rewarded in instantly claimable PLOTs. The incentives are explained in more detail here.

To learn how to create markets on PlotX, please read the 'Creating Markets on PlotX' guide.

That’s it!

That’s how you make predictions on PlotX! Now, what are you waiting for? Get on PlotX right now, and start making predictions in your favourite markets to earn rewards.

Also, don’t forget to join our channels on Discord and Telegram to join other PLOT Heads, such as yourself, in conversations around PlotX and crypto-prediction in general.