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How to Predict & Win

Prerequisites

Before proceeding with this guide, you should:

Making a prediction on PlotX

The process of making a prediction can be divided into 4 simple steps:
  1. 1.
    Select a cryptocurrency whose price you can predict
  2. 2.
    Select the Market Cycle
  3. 3.
    Choose a prediction option
  4. 4.
    Make the prediction transaction

Step 1 - Select a cryptocurrency whose price you can predict

Just like how you can trade different cryptocurrencies on any exchange, you can predict the price of different cryptocurrencies on PlotX.
So, the first step to making a prediction on PlotX is - select a cryptocurrency whose price you can predict.
You can see all the cryptocurrencies listed on PlotX by following these steps:
  1. 1.
    Go to plotx.io​
  2. 2.
    Scroll down to find the Live Markets table
  3. 3.
    Use the Filter by Asset option to see all the assets listed on PlotX
PlotX creates prediction markets of different time-frames for every asset listed on the platform in a cyclical manner.

Step 2 - Choose the Market Cycle

The next step is to select the time frame of the market. On PlotX, you can predict the price of every listed asset on different time frames:
  • Hourly
  • Daily
  • Weekly
For example, you can predict where will BTC price go in the next hour, or the next day, or even the next week!
These time frames are known as "Market Cycles".
So, the second step to making a prediction is choosing the Market Cycle. You can do this by following these steps:
  1. 1.
    Go to plotx.io​
  2. 2.
    Scroll down to find the Live Markets table
  3. 3.
    Use the Filter by Type option to see the different Market Cycles available on PlotX

Some context

After you have selected a cryptocurrency whose price you can predict, and the time frame of the market, click anywhere on the market row to go to the live page of that prediction market.
In the live page, there are a couple of elements that you should be aware of before proceeding with the guide:

Market Asset

This is the cryptocurrency whose price you are predicting in the market. In the screenshot abov, the Market Asset is $SOL.
You can go to a different cryptocurrency's prediction market by clicking on the Market Asset drop down menu and selecting a different Market Asset.

Market Cycle

You can change the Market Cycle by clicking on the Market Cycle drop down menu.

Settlement time

This is the time (in your time zone) when the protocol notes down Market Asset's price from Binance and decides which prediction option is the winner. The Market Cycle you select in step 2 decides the settlement time of the market.
In the screenshot above, you can see three Market Cycles along with the settlement times that are associated with them.

Step 3 - Choose a prediction option

PlotX prediction markets generally offer three prediction options:
  • Going Up Market Asset's price will be above a certain price at the settlement time
  • Going Down
    Market Asset's price will be below a certain price at the settlement time
  • Staying Flat Market Asset's price will be between the price mentioned in the Going Down option and the Going Up option
In the market shown in the GIF above, you can choose the:
  • Going Up option if you think the price of $SOL will be above $73.48 at the settlement time
  • Going Down option if you think the price of $SOL will be below $66.48 at the settlement time
  • Staying Flat option if you think the price of $SOL will be between $66.48 and $73.48 at the settlement time

Step 4 - Make the prediction transaction

After choosing an option, the final step is to make the prediction transaction.
Simply select the payment cryptocurrency, enter an amount and hit the Predict with ____ button.
Did you know? PlotX has Meta transactions. This means that users don't have to pay any gas fees to predict, deposit funds, or withdraw funds on the platform as the protocol pays it on behalf of them.

Where can I see my rewards?

After making a prediction, you can check its status through the My Predictions page:
1. Click on your wallet address on the top right corner:
2. Click on the My Predictions button in the login popup:
Here, you can see the details of all your past predictions. This includes:
  • Prediction History - Details of all the predictions that have settled
  • Open Predictions - Details of all the predictions that are currently live or in settlement
If your predictions turns out to be correct, you get back your prediction amount and a guaranteed reward.

How are my rewards calculated?

  • PlotX is a zero-sum game. When a market settles, the winning option gets the sum of the amount at stake in the other two options.
  • For example, when a market settles, if the Going Up option wins, then: Reward pool of 'Going Up' option = amount at stake in 'Staying Flat' option + amount at stake in 'Going Down' option
  • The Reward Pool of the winning option is divided between the people who predicted in the winning option according to their individual Pool Share percentages. For example, if your Pool Share percentage is 10%, and the Reward Pool consists of 1,000 PLOT, then your reward will be:
    Reward Pool * Pool Share​ = 1,000 PLOT * 10% = 100 PLOT
  • Finally, your Pool Share percentage is calculated based on the number of positions you hold in an option, and the number of positions held by everyone else in the same option.
  • For example, if, while predicting in the Going Up option, you buy 35 positions. And let's say that there are 9 other people who bought the same number of positions as you in the Going Up option.
    => total positions in the Going Up option = 350
    => your Pool Share percentage in the Going Up option = (your positions in the 'Going Up' option / sum of everyone's positions in the 'Going Up' option) x 100 = (35 / 350) x 100 = 10%
Last modified 1mo ago